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Prediction for CME (2013-10-25T15:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-10-25T15:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/3460/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-10-29T07:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-10-26T23:53Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Prediction Method: STOA
Prediction Method Note:

From: Murray Dryer 
Subject: X2.1 flare, 25 October2013, S08E59, Halo CME
Date: October 25, 2013 8:21:46 PM EDT
To: spaceweather 
Associated with subject flare, Sagamore Hill reports a metric Type II drift from 180 ->25 MHz with an estimated coronal shock speed, Vs = 2078 km/s. Kevin Schenk reports a Halo CME with a speed, Vcme = 1247 km/s, averaged in C2 and C3 of SOHO.

STOA shock (western flank) arrival predicted on 26 October 2013, 2353 UT +/-10hr.

Caveat: Earlier flares are not considered as in advanced 3D models.

Interesting Halloween 2013 period!

Murray

Lead Time: 78.82 hour(s)
Difference: 55.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-10-26T00:21Z

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